^{Guesstimate Solving: Estimate the Number of Instagram Reels Sent in a Day}

Today’s question is to estimate the number of Instagram Reels shared in a single day,  the endless videos we watch, create, and send to friends.

Guesstimates are logical estimations based on structured thinking and reasonable assumptions rather than precise data. They are widely used in consulting, business analytics, and problem-solving to approximate solutions to complex questions. Whether it’s estimating the number of daily metro passengers or the total coffee cups sold in a city, the ability to break down a problem and make informed assumptions is an essential skill.

Solving a guesstimate follows these key steps:

Understand the Question : Identify key factors such as the total urban population, age groups and income segments.

Break Down the Problem : Classify the population into the three age groups and further divide each group into different income classes to better understand internet accessibility.

Make Reasonable Assumptions : Assume internet penetration varies across income segments, but Instagram usage among internet users remains high at 95% across all groups.

Apply a Structured Approach : For each segment, estimate the number of internet users, apply the Instagram usage percentage, and finally use the formula:

(People using social media) × (95% using Instagram) × 5
to calculate the total number of Reels sent in a day.

Verify and Validate : Cross-check if the final number seems reasonable compared to known Instagram usage statistics and typical user behavior patterns.

APPROACH

The first thing we need to do is to set up a framework which includes asking preliminary questions in reference to our case. In our scenario of estimating Instagram Reels sent in a day in India, these questions help clarify the scope, such as whether to include influencer activity separately and if cross-border sending should be considered (which we've established it shouldn't). 

After answering these clarifying questions and defining our sample space (Instagram users within India), we start creating a strategy. The trick to do that is to divide the population into relevant segments based on factors influencing Instagram usage, like age and income. This simplifies our estimation as we can apply different usage probabilities to each segment instead of treating the entire population uniformly. 

Since different demographics have varying levels of internet penetration and social media engagement, we categorized the urban population (the primary user base) into age groups and then further into income levels, assuming these factors correlate with Instagram activity. 

Therefore, our strategy is to divide the population into meaningful groups, estimate the Instagram usage within each group based on internet penetration and platform adoption rates, calculate the number of active users, and then multiply this by an assumed average daily Reel sending rate to get an estimated total. Based on this, the urban population of India was categorized into age groups and then further segmented by income to refine the estimation process.

MAKING ASSUMPTIONS:

These are necessary to act as basic truths upon which we can build our estimation. These need to be very reasonable assumptions and help us reach the solution efficiently. Thus, we can reasonably assume:

A. Children from the age of 0-12 years and adults above the age of 60 do not use Instagram. 

B. Only people in Urban Areas use Instagram, and their number is 50 Crore.

C. In middle and high-income groups, 75% of people would use social media, and for low-income groups, the percentage is 50. 

D. Every person has just one Instagram account. 

E. The number of Reels sent daily per user is 5.

STEP-BY-STEP CALCULATION

First, we segment the urban population based on age:

• 12-60 Years: 65% of 50 Crore = 32.5 Crore people.

Next, we further divide this segment by income and apply internet penetration rates:

• Low Income (40% of 32.5 Cr): 13 Crore people. Internet penetration is 50%, so 13 Cr×0.50 = 6.5 Crore internet users.

• Medium Income (40% of 32.5 Cr): 13 Crore people. Internet penetration is 75%, so 13 Cr×0.75 = 9.75 Crore internet users.

• High Income (20% of 32.5 Cr): 6.5 Crore people. Internet penetration is 100%, so 6.5 Cr×1.00 = 6.5 Crore internet users.

Now, we apply the Instagram usage rate within each income group:

• Low Income: 95% of 6.5 Crore internet users = 6.5 Cr×0.95 = 6.175 Crore Instagram users.

• Medium Income: 95% of 9.75 Crore internet users = 9.75 Cr×0.95 = 9.2625 Crore Instagram users.

• High Income: 95% of 6.5 Crore internet users = 6.5 Cr×0.95 = 6.175 Crore Instagram users.

The total number of estimated daily Instagram Reels sent is the sum of active users in each income group multiplied by the average of 5 Reels per user:

Total Reels = (6.175 Cr+9.2625 Cr+6.175 Cr)×5 Total Reels = 21.6125 Cr×5 Total Reels = 108.0625 Crore Reels

So, based on this structured approach and our assumptions, the estimated number of Instagram Reels sent in a day in India is approximately 108.06 Crore.

Practice Question 1: Estimating the Number of Pizzas Ordered Online in Gurugram on a Saturday Night

Practice Question 2: Estimating the Total Number of Chai Cups Consumed in a Typical Office Building in Bangalore on a Workday

WRITER